结论三：牛市或强市期间“炒新”并不能避免亏损可能。
为了分析市场走势与“炒新”亏损可能性之间的关系，该研究将各年度的上证综合指数与投资者按以上两种模式操作发生亏损的可能性进行了对比。（详见图1、图2）
表1：投资者按模式1买入新上市股票后的亏损可能性
|
年度
|
在1个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
在3个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
在6个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
|
1991
|
85.71%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
1992
|
53.85%
|
28.21%
|
17.95%
|
|
1993
|
72.58%
|
79.84%
|
85.48%
|
|
1994
|
80.00%
|
85.45%
|
79.09%
|
|
1995
|
79.17%
|
28.57%
|
62.50%
|
|
1996
|
54.19%
|
56.80%
|
26.60%
|
|
1997
|
69.90%
|
50.00%
|
65.05%
|
|
1998
|
76.42%
|
28.57%
|
66.98%
|
|
1999
|
71.43%
|
35.77%
|
32.65%
|
|
2000
|
67.88%
|
34.18%
|
43.07%
|
|
2001
|
69.62%
|
52.11%
|
67.09%
|
|
2002
|
67.61%
|
49.25%
|
81.69%
|
|
2003
|
71.64%
|
72.00%
|
62.69%
|
|
2004
|
79.00%
|
46.67%
|
90.00%
|
|
2005
|
60.00%
|
24.62%
|
60.00%
|
|
2006
|
63.08%
|
4.00%
|
16.92%
|
|
2007
|
63.49%
|
61.11%
|
65.87%
|
|
2008
|
84.42%
|
93.51%
|
89.61%
|
表2：投资者按模式2买入新上市股票后的亏损可能性
|
年度
|
在1个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
在3个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
在6个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性
|
|
1991
|
85.71%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
|
1992
|
53.85%
|
28.21%
|
17.95%
|
|
1993
|
72.58%
|
79.84%
|
85.48%
|
|
1994
|
80.00%
|
85.45%
|
79.09%
|
|
1995
|
79.17%
|
28.57%
|
62.50%
|
|
1996
|
54.19%
|
56.80%
|
26.60%
|
|
1997
|
69.90%
|
50.00%
|
65.05%
|
|
1998
|
76.42%
|
28.57%
|
66.98%
|
|
1999
|
71.43%
|
35.77%
|
32.65%
|
|
2000
|
67.88%
|
34.18%
|
43.07%
|
|
2001
|
69.62%
|
52.11%
|
67.09%
|
|
2002
|
67.61%
|
49.25%
|
81.69%
|
|
2003
|
71.64%
|
72.00%
|
62.69%
|
|
2004
|
79.00%
|
46.67%
|
90.00%
|
|
2005
|
60.00%
|
24.62%
|
60.00%
|
|
2006
|
63.08%
|
4.00%
|
16.92%
|
|
2007
|
63.49%
|
61.11%
|
65.87%
|
|
2008
|
84.42%
|
93.51%
|
89.61%
|
图1：各年度在新股上市首日买入并在1个月后卖出发生亏损的可能性与上证综合指数比较(假设买入和卖出价均为开盘价)
|
